23022026

• With KOSPI and Korean memory ripping above 6000, I was thinking of a tail risk trade around KOSPI <= 5000 and XAU >= 8000

• Seems pretty clear that the consensus is around Brent/WTI shooting up at market open - looks to there'll be some sort of reversion as positioning overtakes fundamentals tomorrow
• Strait of Hormuz potential closure - 20% of global oil supply at risk
• Lira depreciation: huge trade deficit/current account deficit (which has been responsible for inflation and currency depreciation) with "core" goods imports reaching levels last seen in 2018

• USDJPY even higher with no allowances by Takaichi on expansionary monetary policy
• Anthropic can choose to have restrictions in agreements that it believes a counterparty would not uphold despite those (ideally) being enshrined in law. Unfortunately when the counterparty is the military it's a rather patronizing position to have. Difficult to argue about free market decisions by the gov given the ability to apply the "supply-chain threat" moniker
• EWY is almost entirely SK Hynix and Samsung, at least much more than the ~50% weighting people think it is. 2. SK Hynix and possibly Samsung ADR later this year 3. Growing volume of SK/Samsung on Hyperliquid 4. SK/Samsung/Micron have a monopoly on HBM 5. They're massively undervalued

https://twitter.com/tavicosta/status/2027814903197667792